新区勘探的多井钻探计划地质风险分析

Geological risk analysis in multi-well drilling prospect plan of new exploration areas

油气勘探投资是典型的风险投资活动 ,尤其对勘探程度较低的勘探新区投资 ,具有较高的风险 .油气勘探项目的风险主要包括地质风险、技术风险、经济风险、政治风险等 .其中地质风险是勘探开发项目中主要的风险来源 .风险分析的目的就是给投资者提供直观的、数字化的结果 ,帮助投资者科学决策 ,以减小、回避风险 .根据新区勘探资料少、风险较高的特点 ,可以采用二项分布概率模型 ,预测进行多井勘探的不同结果的勘探成功率 .二项分布概率模型分析多井钻探风险具有方便快捷、需要资料少、可以预测多种结果的特点 .预测结果可以作为“最坏情况”

There are many uncertainties in oil and gas exploration, which result in risks. Especially, because of lack of data, there are higher risks in new area exploration. The risks come from geological complexities, technical factors, financial factors and political factors, and the risks from geological complexities is the primary. The authors put forward a method to analyze the success ratios of the different multi-well drilling prospect plans by using binomial distribution probability model. This method only needs a few data and therefore it is very suitable to the drilling prospect in new areas. The predicted success ratios can be used as the worst outcomes for supplying decision reference to investors.