经济转轨与货币政策的有效性

Transition Economy and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

本文从经济均衡机制转换对货币中性或非中性影响的角度 ,探索经济转轨时期货币政策的有效性问题。文章认为货币中性或非中性的判断有一个“中性→非中性→中性”的演化过程 ,这一过程一般与货币自身功能的强弱演变相关 ,而后者又在很大程度上取决于货币形态结构的变化。通过理论推导和实证分析 ,得出随经济的高速增长和体制转轨 ,经济均衡机制由资源约束型向需求约束型过渡 ,货币对实质经济的影响也逐渐减弱 ,处于由“非中性”向“中性”转变的过程之中 ,从而削弱了货币政策对扩张有效需求、刺激经济增长的作用。

This article argues the effectiveness of the monetary policy according to the research for the influence of economy balance mechanism on the neutrality (or non neutrality) of the currency during the period of the change of financial structure. By this means, the article presents that the criterion of neutral (or non neutral) of the currency is varied with the process from neutrality to non neutrality, then to non neutrality which is determined by the change of currency formation structure. Through theoretic and practical analysis, it can be concluded that with high speed development of economy and the change of financial structure, the economy balance mechanism will be transferred from resource constrained economy to demand constrained economy.During the transformation from “non neutrality” to “neutrality”, the influence of the currency on material economy will also be gradually reduced, which will weaken the monetary policy functions both on expanding effective demand and stimulating economy development.