山西神头泉流量的灰色预测模型研究

Gray prediction model for forecasting spring discharge

本文在研究岩溶水运动规律的基础上,应用灰色系统方法,建立了神头岩溶泉流量灰色动态预测模型,对其流量进行了预测,预测结果显示,从2001～2015年,神头泉流量总的趋势是下降状态,为此提出了神头泉域岩溶水资源开发利用和保护措施。

The gray system method is applied to establish a dynamic model for forecasting the discharge of Shentou Spring,Shanxi Province,China.The prediction shows that the discharge tends to decrease from year of 2001 to 2015.The strategy of exploitation and measures of protection for water resources in karst region are proposed.