论我国汇率制度及人民币国际化的抉择

On China' s Exchange Rate System and Internationalization Choice of RMB

近些年来先后有许多新兴市场国家爆发了金融危机,包括东南亚国家、韩国、俄罗斯、巴西和阿根廷等。这些国家爆发金融危机有一个根本性的标志,就是放弃了固定的或有限浮动的汇率制度。这说明实行固定的或有限浮动的汇率制度是导致新兴市场国家发生金融危机的根本原因之一。我国也属于新兴市场国家,也实行钉住美元的有管理的浮动汇率制度,是否也存在严重的汇率风险,这是值得关注的问题。不仅如此,新兴市场国家究竟应实行何种汇率制度才能确保金融秩序的长期稳定?相应地我国今后应选择何种汇率制度才能有效防范和化解金融风险?人民币是否要国际化?东亚国家是否应建立货币联盟,催生亚元?这些也是需要深入研究的重大现实问题。本文就这类问题作出了系统分析和探讨,以求抛砖引玉。

Financial crisis broke out successively in recent years in many new market countries, including Southeast Asian countries, Russia, Brazil and Argentina, etc. A radical mark in these countries is that they all gave up the fixed or limited floating exchange rate system, which indicates that the practice of these kinds of exchange rate system is one of the basic causes of the financial crisis in new market countries. China, a new market country too, also implements the managed floating exchange rate system pegged with US dollars. Therefore, close attention should be paid as to whether there is a high financial risk too. Besides, there are other practical issues which demand in-depth study such as which kind of exchange rate system should be adopted by new market countries to ensure a long - term stability of financial order; Which kind China should choose in order to effectively prevent and resolve financial risks; Whether RMB should be internationalized and whether East Asian countries should establish the monetary union to develop the Asian Yuan. This article makes a systematic analysis and exploration of these issues in a hope to provide some reference for further study.