关于我国财政政策的有效性——利用货币流通速度的分析

The Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Fiscal Policy in China with the Velocity of Money

最近几年,我国政府为了保持经济的稳定增长,实行了扩张性的财政政策。政府实行的财政政策是否有效,程度如何,对这个问题的研究将对未来几年我国是否应继续采取扩张性财政政策提供理论根据和实践依据。我们利用货币流通速度的变化来研究我国实行的财政政策的有效性问题,通过计算发现:1978—2001年期间我国货币流通速度呈下降趋势,但是下降趋势越来越缓慢;我国货币流通速度的变化同财政支出的增长变化方向相同。利用我国居民边际消费倾向的估计值和货币流通速度的平均值数据,我们度量了我国财政支出变化对GDP变化的影响程度,得出我国实行的扩张性财政政策有效的结论。但是必须要指出的是,从1978年以来我国财政支出增长率的长期趋势持续上升,而从90年代以后货币流通速度的增长率的长期趋势却下降,这将给我国的经济增长带来很大的压力。

In these years, Chinese government executes expansionary fiscal policies in order to keep the economy growth at a stable rate. It is very important to study the validity of the fiscal policies, which will provide the theory and practice basis for continuing the expansionary fiscal policies. In this paper, we utilize the changes of the velocity of money to study the effectiveness of the fiscal policy in China. We find that the velocity of money present a downward trend from 1978 to 2001, but the downward trend slows down with the time going?We also find that the change of the velocity of money is positively relevant to the change of the fiscal expenditure. Making use of the estimate of the marginal propensity to consume and the mean value of the velocity of money, we measure the effect of changes of fiscal expenditure on the change of GDP, and conclude that the expansionary fiscal policies in China are effective. We also should point out that the growth rate of fiscal expenditure keep a upward trend since 1978, while the growth rate of the velocity of money present a downward trend since the 1990's, which will put great pressure on the economic growth of China.