官厅水库及邻区地震活动的最大熵谱分析及其未来50年内强震危险性预测

Maximum entropy spectrum analysis for the seismicity in Guanting reservoir area and earthquake risk prediction in the next fifty years

利用最大熵谱分析与显著周期叠加建模的方法,首先对官厅水库及邻区的历史地震活动进行最大熵谱分析,然后利用所得到的显著周期进行建模,最后对未来50年内官厅水库及邻区的地震危险性进行了分析和预测。本文还用熵谱谱阵分析法,分析了地震活动周期的相对稳定性和时变性,并指出在地震预测中应注意对时变性的研究。

modeled with maximum entropy spectrum analysis and prominent period stacking, the historical earthquake activity in Guanting reservoir and its surrounding area is studied. The earthquake risk of the area in the next fifty years is predicted with the prominent periods that we obtained. The stability and time-varying of the period in earthquake activity are also analyzed with spectral array of entropy method.