用CLUSTER方法判定河北地区强震地点

Identification of Earthquake Sites in Hebei Region by Making Use of Cluster Method

本文用Cluster方法和加权亨明方法对河北地区的地震地质、地貌、地球物理场、地壳形变和活动断裂与区域应力轴之间关系等特征进行综合研究,得到14个可能发生M≥6地震的潜在震源区,其中7个地区发生过6级以上地震,其余7个地区为本文判定未来强震的潜在震源区。K值试验和删除节点试验表明结果是稳定的。本文给出的潜在震源区基本在华北地区十年危险区划所划定的范围内,但范围小。本项工作之后发生了1989年10月山西大同—阳高6.1级地震,它恰好位于本文第14个强震潜在震源区边缘。

The cluster and Hamming method are used in this paper for a comperhensive study of Hebei area on its seismic geology, gemorphology, geophysical field , crustal deformation , active faults, regional stress axes and their relations. 14 potential seismic zones in which shocks with M ≥6 may happen have been identified,and shocks with M≥6 have occurred in seven of them and the other seven have been considered as a future strong earthquakes areas. Both the K value and test of deleting nodes show the stability of results obtaind in this paper. The potential seismic zones identified in the paper just fall into the areas of officially marked risk areas within 10 years of North China, but the scale of the identified zones is smaller,Datong-Yanggao earthquake with M =6. 1 occurred in October of 1989 rightly in the 14 potential seismic zones mentioned above.