地震概率预报效能评分和预报发布决策

Evaluation of Probabilistic Earthquake Prediction and Decision-Making of Releasing Predictions to the Public

我国地震预报的发展已经到了这样的阶段:我们不但面临地震预报问题,而且面临如何应用决策理论科学地向公众发布短临预报的问题。为此,除了目前已经开展的地震易损性研究外,还要研究预报向公众发布后引起的社会经济效应及采取预防措施所需的经济代价;此外,还应实现从确定性地震预报向概率地震预报的转变。概率预报是地震活动本身特点所要求的科学的预报方法,它可以使我们把长期地震危险性分析和短临预报有机的结合起来,进行定量的决策分析,更科学的决策是否和如何向公众发表地震短临预报,取得更好的社会效益。为了在短临预报中推广概率预报,必须正确理解概率预报的含义和对概率预报效能进行评价。

Chinses seismologists have been coping with the challenging scientific problem of earthquake prediction, but now, they are confronting an even more challenging problem of decision - making about how to release the prediction to the public. In order to make correct decision, in addition to the widely launched study of seismic hazard and risk analysis, it is necessary to further study the social consequences of releasing an earthquake prediction to the public, and the possible economic cost of precaution measures against earthquakes. It is also necessary to replace determinstic predictions by probabilistic predictions. Probabilistic prediction is a well-suited method for prediction of chaotic seismic events. It can integrate the long term risk estimation and short term forecasting into a unified procedure, to make quantitative analysis in decision-making on the release of earthquake predictions to the public, and to achieve the maximum beneficial social results of earthquake prediction.