摘要
本文根据山西地震带的地质构造和地震活动的资料,采用有限单元法对该带的构造应力场进行了数值模似,综合分析了该带地震地质、地震活动和构造应力场的特征,初步估计了该带未来强震活动的趋势。主要的估计结果如下: 从1993年到2015年间,在山西地震带将可能发生一个M_s=6.2±0.4地震,其可能地点有三个,若依发震可能性大小的顺序排列将是:(1)霍县～洪洞一带;(2)大同～怀仁～应县～浑源所围地区;(3)灵丘以东至涞源断裂两端所围地区。
In this paper, according to the geological structure and the data on seismicity in the Shanxi seismic belt, the tectonic stress field of this belt is imitated by using the finite element method, and by analyzing synthetically the characteristics of seismogeological structure, seismicity and tectpnic stress field, the trend of the coming strong earthquake in the Shanxi seismic belt can be roughly assessed. The main estimations are as follows.From 1993 to 2015, a strong earthquake with magnitude Ms = 6. 2±0. 4 may occur in the Shanxi seismic belt, and there are three possible locations for earthquake occurrence, if we arrange according to the order of possibility of earthquake occurrence, the location of a coming earthquake would be (1)the region between Huoxian and Hongdong; (2) the region surrounded by Datong, Yingxian and Hunyuan, and (3) the region surrounded by the east of Lingqiu to the two ends of the Laiyuan fault.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第4期34-42,共9页
Earthquake Research in China
