多层次统计-动力建模及其应用

The Modeling Technique of Multi-Hierarchy Statistic-dynamics and its Application

该文将子波变换技术和平衡态动力理论结合起来 ,提出了以气候突变点数为核心的代层次气候建模技术 .该技术不仅具有纯粹的动力学意义 ,而且模式的物理意义十分清楚 ,计算简单 .

In this paper, the technique of wavelet analysis and the theory of equilibrium state are combined to propose modeling technique of climate catastrophe points. Comparing with traditional statistic modeling technique, this technique has the sense of pure dynamics and is able to determine catastrophe points rigorously. Comparing with traditional method of dynamical numerical forecast, this method has made full use of the historical information provided by data and been able to work out the transition time of the climate states with different time scale rigorously. Moreover, the physical meaning of the model is very clear and the calculation is fairly simple.