面向Internet的农业气象产量动态预报

An Internet-orientated Dynamic Prediction Method of Crop Yield

针对信息时代Internet网上用户对产量预报动态查询的需求 ,探讨了面向Inter net的农业气象产量预报的解决方案。试验结果表明 ,由于作物生长发育和产量形成是一个光、温、水、土条件长期、综合作用 ,生物量长期累积的过程 ,因此利用积分回归方法 ,考虑全生育期光、温、水气象因子的综合影响 ,根据已出现的天气实况 ,在假定后期天气条件正常的情况下 ,有可能预测出未来产量的趋势。随着天气实况的逐一出现 ,后期的预报结果可望逐步接近实际值。统计检验和试报结果误差均在允许范围内。

A crop yield prediction of Internet-oriented dynamical resolution was proposed the demand of Internet users on dynamic inquiring crop yield into consideration. The results show that it is possible to predict crop yield applying mathematics model based on real-time weather elements and average climatic value in rest period during the growing season, which consist of required temperature, sunshine and precipitation for crops growth. The predicted values tend to approach actual values with the appearance of real-time weather data. The statistical test and validation are acceptable.