生存函数模型及其在生命表制作中的应用

Survival Function Model and Its Application in Life Table Making

人口生命表常常用于反映给定一群人的生命现象的延续和变化特征,特别是其中的平均预期寿命的计算,在实际中具有广泛的应用价值。但对于人口量较小或数据波动较大的人口群体,传统方法编制的人口生命表无法得到满意的结果。研究云南及各少数民族人口的生存函数模型,并给出了基于该模型的人口生命表的编制算法。通过对第五次全国人口普查云南省人口及各少数民族的人口数据,计算了基于生存函数模型的人口生命表。结果表明,当人口量较大及数据较为完整时,所得结果与传统方法非常接近。而对人口量较小的少数民族人口,此种新方法能得到更为满意的结果。

Population life table is often used to reflect the features of the continuity and the change of certain people's life phenomenon, especially the calculation of average anticipative life, which is of great value in practice. But for colonies, which have small population or big fluctuant data, it is impossible to get satisfied results by traditionally made population life table. This article studies the survival function model of minorities in Yunnan, and made the arithmetic of population life table basing on the model. According to the data of the population of Yunnan province and the one of each minority, which is from the fifth national population survey, population life table has been made on the base of survival function model. The study shows that when population is huge, and data is rounded, results are very similar to those got from traditional way. As for minorities, which are of smaller population, this method can gain more satisfied result.