一类年龄结构SEIR流行病模型的阈值分析

Threshold of an age-structured SEIR epidemic model with varying population size

运用齐次动力系统理论讨论了一类总人口规模变化情况下的年龄结构的SEIR流行病模型,得到了与人口增长指数有关的基本再生数R0的表达式,并证明了当R0<1时,系统只存在无病平衡态;当R0>1时,系统存在地方病平衡态.

A class of age-structured SEIR epidemic model with varying population size by using the theory of homogeneous dynamical systems is discussed.The explicit expression of the basic reproduction number R_0,which is relateded to the exponent of growth of total population,is obtained.It is proved that there is a disease-free equilibrium if R_0<1,and an epdemic equilibrium if R_0>1.