上海市人口合理规模的预测模型及灵敏度分析

Forecasting Model and Acuity Degree Analysis of the Reasonable Population Scope in Shanghai City

运用系统工程中的可能-满意度法建立了上海市合理人口规模的预测模型,对经济水平、社会生活、资源水平、生态环境和实力需求五大方面的多个因素进行并合,得出了在一个目标时间点上的合理人口规模及其所依赖的条件,并对其中的关键影响因素进行了不同方式的灵敏度分析,得到了一些政策性结论,对实现合理人口规模的目标具有一定的理论和现实意义.

The article used the possibility-satisfaction degree method of system engineering to build a forecasting model of the reasonable population scope in Shanghai city. It incorporates lots of factors in five aspects that are the level of economics, social living, level of resources, environments and strength requirement and finds the reasonable population scope and the conditions that the scope relies on at an objective time. The article made different kinds of acuity degree analysis of key influence factors and got some policy conclusion. It has a certain theoretical value and practical meaning for implementing the object of reasonable population scope.