中西部地区耕地潜力及承载力研究

Research on Arable Land Potential and Carrying Capacity in Mid and West China

本文通过机制法、时间序列法计算了中西部地区耕地资源的潜力,分析了未来30年在不同生活标准水平下中西部地区的人口承载力,认为中西部地区棉花、油料供给相对充足,粮食生产基本能满足需求,但近10年内粮食生产要满足小康需求还有一定距离,从全国范围来看近期粮食生产供需较紧,不能因短期粮食供大于求而放松粮食生产,否则将给国民经济带来极为不利的影响。

This article analyses load carrying capacity under different live-standards of the central and west in upcoming 30 years by using technique of mechanism and technique of time series to calculate cropland's potential,concludes the supply of cotton and oil plant being relative sufficient,food production capacity satisfying demand basically.However,in upcoming 10 years,the food production capacity can't fulfill the requirement of well-off society,within the limits of whole country,the supply-demand relation is tense,there is not a reason to overslaugh food production becaues of short-termed,otherwies,will have negative effects on the national economy.