透视我国储蓄、外汇“双溢出”现象

Perspective on China's Double Overflow of Savings and Foreign Exchange

近年来在我国以利用外资促进经济发展的过程中,外汇、储蓄"双溢出"现象日益突出,这似乎有悖于传统利用外资"双缺口"理论。但是从深层次看,储蓄负缺口的出现主要源于我国储蓄——投资途径不畅通,随着经济体制改革的深入,金融市场的完善,这种不正常的负缺口会逐渐缩小;而在经常项目中,进口规模将呈增加趋势,出口则面临长期严峻考验,外汇负缺口也将趋于外汇收支平衡。这说明我国储蓄和外汇的"双溢出"既不能持久,也不反映现实资金供求状况。有鉴于此,在继续保持引进外资适度增长水平的同时,全面提高利用外资的质量和效益,对促进我国经济新一轮起飞有着重要意义。

In the recent years, China's overflow of savings and foreign exchange has stood out in the course of using foreign capital, which is against the traditional theory of 'Double Gap'But savings overflow resulting from savingsinvestment channel is rigid,and foreign exchange overflow will gradually decrease as the consequence of the increasingly austere conditions of foreign tradeTherefore,the phenomena of double overflow is abnormal and cannot keep longWe should continuously introduce foreign capital and widely heighten the quality of foreign capital,which is important to our development