利用软件实现短期电量预测的专家系统算法

The Realization of Short Term Electricity Forecasting Based on Expert System Algorithm

供电企业准确预测未来售电量,是决策企业经营目标的基础和生产发展的基本依据。利用已有负荷、电量预测方法,引入优化组合思想,将不同的预测模型及预测工作人员的经验有机地结合起来,通过综合各模型的优点和经验,可得到较为准确的供电企业短期售电量预测值。以兰州供电局历史售电量数据为基础,设计并编制了初步具备专家预测系统功能的预测分析软件。实例分析证明,程序的设计较为成功。利用专家预测系统的预测思想结合组合法的程序设计,可以极大提高预测精度。

How this text was discussed effectively raises the accuracy that the power supply enterprise sell the quantity of electricity forecasting in short-term,and the utilization has have load and the quantity of electricity forecasting method leads optimum organization thought,thus reaches the experience to calculate work personnel organicly to combine,and by way of merit and the experience of synthetical each model,gets the comparatively accurate forecasting to be worth the forecasting model of difference.Discussing with Lanzhou power supply bureau history to sell the quantity of electricity data in the character serve as the foundation,and the predictive analysis software that the initial expert having calculate the system merit ability was worked out in the design.