基于BP网络的改进负荷预测方法

Improved load forecasting method based on BP network

论述了电力负荷预测中建模数据的选择、预处理方法及其对预测精度的影响。针对电力负荷预测的实际困难,提出了一种以节气负荷作为建模数据,将ARIMA模型及BP网络相结合的负荷预测新方法。实践证明,该方法能够有效提高预测精度,并具有很好的鲁棒性。

The selection of the modeling data, the data′s pretreatment of power load forecasting and their effects on forecasting precision were discussed. Aiming at the actual difficulties in load forecasting, a new load forecasting method in which the solar term load is used as modeling data was put forward combining ARIMA model and BP network. The practice has proved that the method will improve the precision of load forecasting effectively and has excellent robusticity.