摘要
利率自由化是金融自由化理论的核心政策建议,也是传统的货币政策理论的核心构件。但是发展中国家的改革实践却表明,能够促进储蓄与投资的并不是自由的利率体系,而是受到控制的,稳定的正实际利率。供给导向的金融自由化理论和需求导向的传统货币理论的不协调是致使这一现象出现的根本原因。本文建立了一个包含发展中国家经济特征的货币政策模型,分析了利率变动对储蓄和投资的影响,并对影响我国规定资产投资的主要因素进行了实证分析。结论是发展中国家在金融自由化过程中应保持利率水平的稳定,同时对资本账户进行管制,以外国直接投资为主要引资方式。
Interest rate liberalization is not only the central policy suggestion of the financial liberalization theory but also the core component of monetary policy theory. But the practice of developing countries shows that what boosts the deposit and investment is not the liberalized interest rate system, but a positive, stable and controlled one. The root cause for such fact lies in the disharmony between supply-oriented financial liberalization theory and demand-oriented monetary policy theory. The article sets up a monetary policy model which includes the main economic characteristics of developing countries, and analyzes the effect of interest rate fluctuation on the deposit and investment. After that is an empirical analysis on the factors that affect China′s investment in fixed assets from 1997 to 2003. The main conclusion is that developing countries should keep a stable and positive interest rate, instead of a high one. At the same time, capital accounts should be under control, and FDI should be the main channel of introducing international capital.
出处
《管理评论》
2004年第3期35-39,61,共6页
Management Review
