我国银行存差扩大成因的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Cause of Expanding Deposit Balance of Banks

关于存差问题的理论讨论越来越多,本文试图通过理论与实证相结合的方法,找出一些影响存差变化的重要因素。通过实证分析我们发现:"存款和资本金共谋的特殊资本结构假说"得到了较为有力的支持,此外金融深化假说也得到了一定的支持,而其他假说对存贷差的解释能力并不强。银行存差扩大成因更多源于中国特殊金融制度安排所造成的"存款和资本金共谋的特殊资本结构",而较少来自于金融深化进程。特别值得注意的是,我国存贷差扩大应该归因于金融深化进程的减缓,而不是金融深化进程加速所带来的金融资产和负债业务多元化的结果。

There have been more and more studies on the issue of expanding deposit balance. This paper attempts to combine the theoretical and empirical analyses to find out some important factors influencing deposit balance. It is discovered through empirical analyses that the hypothesis of special banking capital structure of deposit and capital collusion is quite strongly advocated, and the financial deepening hypothesis is also supported to some degree, but there is not enough favorable evidence to support other hypothesis based on the empirical analyses. The expanding deposit balance of banking system in China is mainly derived from the special banking capital structure of deposit and capital collusion which is ascribed to the special arrangement of financial institution in China, but seldom from the process of financial deepening. What is particularly noticeable is that the expanding deposit balance of banking system in China is to some extent due to the slow course of financial deepening in China, but not the diversification of financial assets and liability services brought about by the course of financial deepening.