政策因素与中国房地产市场发展路径——政府、开发商、消费者三方博弈分析

Development Path for Policy Factors and the Real Estate Market in China ——An Analysis with Game Theory on Government, Developer and Customer

中国房地产市场处在整体供给过剩与价格持续上涨同时并存的非均衡状态,中国房地产市场的专业效应和政策效应由于中国房地产业起步阶段的不成熟性而表现得更加突出。文章利用博弈工具,就加入政府的三方博弈体系建立了供给和需求层面的两大不完全信息动态博弈模型,提出了房产商乐观供给预期过度、消费者乐观消费预期不足的结构性矛盾是房地产市场结构失衡的内在原因,从而阐明了政策因素已经并正在决定着中国房地产市场的基本走向。最后文章还对评价政策效应和调整房地产政策以重归理性繁荣的道路提出了建议。

The real estate market in China is in the un-equilibrium state where the total supply is excessive while the price is soaring at the same time. The profession effect and policy effect of the Chinese real estate market are more prominent because the Chinese real estate industry is still in the immature starting stage. With the game theory, this paper adds the government to establish two dynamic game models of incomplete information on supply and demand aspects among the tri-game system. It puts forward that the inside reason of the un-equilibrium state in the Chinese real estate market is the structural confliction between the excessiveness of the supplier's optimism expectations and the shortage of the consumer's optimism expectations. From which it throws light on that the policy factors have already decided and are still deciding the trend of Chinese real estate market. This paper also gives advices on the evaluation of policy effect and the way to adjust real estate policy for the regression of the market's rational boom.