未确知数学在煤矿安全预评价中的应用

Application of Unascertained Mathematics in Preliminary Evaluation of Coal Mine Safety

根据未确知数学理论,建立了预评价指标体系、置信度识别准则及评分准则,构造了矿井安全预评价未确知测度模型,并对矿井的各个安全指标进行定量分析。通过对黄陵二号井的自然灾害状况进行了综合评价,评定结果与实际耦合较好,为煤矿建设项目的安全预评价开辟了一条新途径。

The natural disasters in coal mine involves many unascertained factors which may bring a lot of troubles to the preliminary evaluation of coal mine safety. The index system for preliminary evaluation of coal mine is built on the basis of unascertained mathematical theory and the identification and evaluation criterion for confidence degree and score are given at the same time in this paper. In addition, the unascertained measure model for preliminary evaluation is set up and quantitative analysis of every safety index is made. The comprehensive evaluation on the natural disasters occurred in Huangling No.2 Mine showed that the results of preliminary evaluation accord with the fact, this thus opening up a new way for the preliminary evaluation of coal mine safety.