从降低生育率到稳定低生育率——自然负增长背景下的生育率影响因素及生育管理研究

From Lowering Fertility to Stabilizing Low Fertility:a Research on Factors Associate with Fertility Rate and Policy Implications in Context of Negative Natural Increase in Shanghai

在初步实现低生育率水平以后 ,生育管理的重心应从降低生育率转变为实现稳定的低生育率。生育管理应从严格的数量管理向灵活弹性的结构性调整转变 ,实现生育率的动态稳定和人口结构的优化调整 ;应从直接管理生育行为转变为为稳定低生育率构造良好社会经济环境 ;

The author suggests after fertility dropped under the reproductive level,the focus of population policy should be changed from lowering the fertility to stabilizing the low fertility,and corresponding policy adjustments include shifting from direct control to indirect approaches to create better social and economic surroundings for fertility decline,shifting from rigid quantitative control to flexible adjustment of population structure,and changing from command based administrative methods to develop more market based instruments and policies on population management.