基于灰色理论的煤炭需求预测模型研究

Study on the Predictive Model of Coal Demand Based on the Grey Theory

研究了GM(1,1)模型在我国煤炭需求预测中的应用,并以实际数据为基础,建立了我国煤炭需求量的数列预测模型。经检验,模型可靠,可用于对我国煤炭需求总量的预测。简要分析了根据实际变化不断改进模型的必要性。

The application of model GM(1,1) in coal-demand prediction was studied carefully. A sequence forecasting model for predicting the coal-demand was set up based on real data. The results show that the model is accurate and credible; it can be used to predict the total demand of coal in China. We also discussed that it′s necessary to improve the model constantly according to real situation.