引用正交试验设计方法进行经济评价的多因素敏感性分析

Apply Design Meathod of Orthogonal Test into Multi-Factor Sensitive Analysis in Economic Assessment

本文引用正交试验设计方法进行经济评价的多因素敏感性分析,较好地克服了单因素敏感性分析的缺陷,反映出多项不确定性因素同时变化以及因素间的交互作用对项目经济性的影响,提供了项目经济性指标的预测方程及对其误差的估计,利用方差分析定量地给出了各个不确定性因素对项目经济性影响的显著程度。采用正交试验设计安排多因素敏感性分析,可显著地减少计算工作量,提高经济评价的效率。

This paper applies the design meathod of orthogonal test into the multi-factor sensitive analysis in economic assessment,which eliminates the defects in single-factor sensitive analysis,reflects the simultaneous changes of the uncertain multi-factor and the economic effect on projects resulted by the factors-interaction,provides the predictive equation of the projects economic target and the estimation of its errors,and demonstrates the economic effect on the profects resulted by various uncertain factors with the help of mean square deviation. The arrangement of the multi - factor sensitive analysis by means of the orthogonal test design can remarkably reduce the calculation work and improve the efficiency of the economical assessment.