年调节平原型水库与地下水联合调蓄分析

Research on the conjunctive regulation of an annual regulating plain reservoir and groundwater

本文以辽河石佛寺水库为例,介绍了年调节平原型水库与地下水联合调蓄的模拟分析方法,提出了为满足沈阳市城市供水,辽河应需保证的最少径流量。根据辽河石佛寺水文站的实测资料分析,辽河在枯水季节1～2月份径流量存在一定的风险,因此本文通过模糊带权马尔可夫链方法预测了未来19年1～2月份的径流量状态,并对其可靠性进行了分析,从而为水库地表水与地下水联合调蓄的供水规模及其运行方式提供了科学依据。

In this article the authors take the regulating Shifosi plain reservoir as an example to demonstrate the application of the simulation analysis method to the conjunctive regulation between the plain reservoir and groundwater, and present the minimum runoff of the Liaohe River in Shifosi to meet the demand of supplying water for the city of Shenyang. Analyses based on data analysis collected in past 58 years at the Shifosi hydrology station indicate that risks in water supply may exist in dry seasons especially in January and February. The method of fuzzy Markov chain with weight is applied in this paper to forecast the runoff in January and February in the next 19 years and its reliability is also analyzed. Therefore, a reasonable and scientific basis for water demand and operation mode is put forward for the conjunctive regulation of surface water of the Shifosi plain reservoir and groundwater in the area.