东亚和平的基础

Foundations of Peace in East Asia

冷战后维持东亚地区和平的因素是多方面的 ,但起主导作用的因素是大国之间非均势格局下的核威慑、东盟集体安全的扩展以及韩国作为美国盟友坚持和平统一的政策。非均势核威慑遏制了大国间的战争。非均势核威慑与东盟的扩展共同维系了东亚大国与中小国家间的和平、东盟内部的和平以及美国与东盟国家的和平。韩国的和平统一政策保持了朝韩和平 ,约束了美国对朝鲜动武。非均势格局下的核威慑是核心要素 ,为东盟的扩展和韩国和平统一政策发挥作用提供了基础。如果这三个要素保持不变 ,东亚和平将有望再持续较长时期。

The decade of peace in East Asia after the Cold War has been preserved by several factors,among which the primary factors are the asymmetric nuclear deterrence structure in East Asia,the expansion of the ASEAN collective security,and South Korea's peaceful unification policy toward North Korea as well as its military alliance with the United States.The asymmetric nuclear deterrence structure constrains the major powers from engaging in war.Together with the ASEAN expansion, it has maintained peace between the major powers and the small and medium-sized countries in the region,among members within the ASEAN,and between the United States and the ASEAN countries.South Korea's peaceful unification policy has maintained peace in the Korean peninsula by restraining the United States from military attack against North Korea.Among these three factors ,the asymmetric nuclear deterrence structure is pivotal,providing the basis for the other two factors.Maintenance of these three factors will insure the continuation of the post-Cold War peace in East Asia for a long period of time.