马尔科夫预测在房地产市场营销中的应用研究

A.A. Marcov Forecast Method of the System Ration in Estate Business Study

针对房地产市场营销的系统动态特征,应用马尔科夫链滚动预测方法,可在仅仅占有前期样本的基础上实现系统定量预测,可用于指导房地产市场营销过程中的理性经营。为揭示房地产市场营销活动中主因素构成及其系统数理内涵,文章主要就有关样本解析建模、马尔科夫链滚动预测方法提出了分析研究的相应定量定性结论。马尔科夫预测方法在适用于短期预测的基础上,当市场比较稳定并在一定时期内没有大的变动,只要状态转移矩阵滚动次数足够多,同时也适用于长期预测。

A. A. Markov Rolling Forecast Method is presented in this paper according to the dynamic characteristics of the estate business system. Test results reveal that the system quantitative forecast could be realized on the basis of previous samples, which provide a direction of the rational management in estate business. Concerning sample molding analysis and Markov Rolling Forecast Method, this paper gives a corresponding conclusion of analytic research quantitatively in order to demonstrate the formation of factors working in estate business activities and its systematic logistic connotation. Markov Rolling Forecast Method can be applied not only to short-term prediction but long term one as well, provided when the market is rather stable with no significant change during a regular period of time and when the rolling times of the state transition matrix are fairly enough.