深圳与全国区域经济联系的测度及分析——基于人口迁移模型的研究

THE MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHENZHEN AND OTHER REGIONS IN CHINA --A Practical Study on the Labor Migration Model

深圳工业化过程中同全国各省区建立起了资金、技术、市场以及人才 (包括劳动力 )方面的广泛联系。本文基于外来人口指标 ,构建了深圳户籍人口迁移模型 ,并加以测度及分析 ,从人口迁移角度得出以下结论 :首先 ,深圳同全国各省区经济联系强度与两地的人口规模成正比 ;其次 ,与两地的交通距离成反比 ;第三 ,深圳与全国的经济联系呈辐射状的圈层结构 ;第四 ,外来户籍人口数与两地收入差距相关性不明显。进而分析了形成这种联系格局的其他影响因素 ,并对深圳加强与全国区域经济联系提出政策建议。

The development of Shenzhen is a process in which Shenzhen gradually strengthened its economic cooperation with Hong Kong, the Pearl River Delta and other regions in China. In the process of industrialization, Shenzhen deeply correlated with inland and overseas in capital, technology, labor, market and many other aspects. The cooperation is the key point to economic takeoff, and the guarantee to economic sustainable development and the second carving out. Some important theories on labor migration are discussed in the first section of this paper, including the classical theory of labor migration, the classical model of relaxing the assumptions, the human capital model and the gravity model. Then the authors point out that there are no more important factors than the following three in all the labor migration theories: the distance between the origin and destination region, the scale of population of the two regions and the change of earnings after migration. In the second section, the authors make a regress analysis according to the new model with the statistic population data of Shenzhen in 1995 and other provinces of China. In the third section, the paper figures out the regional economic relationship between Shenzhen and other areas in China: firstly, the economic relation is in direct proportion to the scale of population of Shenzhen and other regions. Those provinces with a larger scale of population have a stronger correlation with Shenzhen. Secondly, the economic relation is in inverse proportion to distance between Shenzhen and other regions. Thirdly, the relationship between Shenzhen and other regions in China radiates from Shenzhen as circularity. It can be divided into four belts: the first belt is Guangdong province except Shenzhen; the second belt includes Guangxi, Fujian, Hainan, Jiangxi, Hunan and Sichuan; the third belt is composed of Hubei, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Henan, Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Jilin and Anhui. The other provinces of China make the fourth belt. The last characteristic of the relationship between Shenzhen and other areas of China is that the correlativity of the migrant labor scale and the income gap between Shenzhen and other regions is not evident.