石油价格的中长期预测

Puzzle about oil price prediction

经济学认为价格高了供应会增加,价格低了供应会减少,这个规律在石油市场是并不存在的。

It is hardly to make comparatively scientific prediction on the variation of short-term oil price, for some occasional reasons is unpredictable in advance. However, the Medium and long term oil price varies regularly. Mao Yushi, a well-known Chinese economist, analyzed the main factors in oil price variation, especially factors which were always ignored in the past. According to Professor Mao's opinion, oil economics differs from the others. Unlike the competitive market supposed by the economics, oil industry is monopolized by tycoons. The fiscal condition of a petroleum exporting country is of great effort in oil economics instead of the producer's intention of purchasing profits. When oil price is high and the fiscal condition of a petroleum exporting country goes at a good momentum, the country will maintain its production. On the other hand, when oil price is low and the fiscal condition is in deficit, the yield has to be increased, as a result oil price declines further. This is the basic rule of oil economics, which makes oil price untraceable and hard to fluctuate around the balance point.