石油价格研究综述

Construction of Energy Base in Yangtze River Delta Region Around Shanghai

20世纪70年代发生的两次大的石油危机,引发了学术界对于油价波动产生的原因和石油价格波动对宏观经济的影响,以及作为主要石油输出国组织(OPEC)在国际石油市场上的地位和作用等等这些问题的深入探讨。人们从不同角度建立起各种模型和理论力求解释油价波动的原因和机理,对其未来的走势和波动做出预测,并据此分析、度量和预测油价波动对经济增长、通货膨胀、失业率等宏观经济活动水平的影响。因此,本文在参阅有关文献基础上,将从油价波动的原因与油价预测、OPEC对国际石油市场的影响、石油价格波动对宏观经济的影响等三个方面的研究工作进行综述。从现有的研究文献表明,关于油价的研究,不但研究的角度和视野趋于多元化,同时其研究的方法和手段也趋于多元化,已经成为能源经济、能源政策的重要研究方向。

Two great oil crises in 1970s bring deeply discussions on the cause of oil price fluctuation, and the effect of oil price shocks on macroeconomics as well as the role and action of OPEC in world oil market. Models and theories built on different opinions try to explain the cause and mechanisms of oil price fluctuation, and forecasting its future trend. It analyzes, measures and forecasts the impact on macro economy activities of the growth of economy, inflation and unemployment from the effect of oil price shocks. Therefore, on the basis of the related literatures, this paper summarizes the researches on the causes of oil price fluctuation and oil price forecasting, the influence of OPEC on world oil market, and the effect of oil price shocks on the macroeconomics. It is indicated that it has hold both diversified viewpoint and the research methods to do the study. And these have been the main research fields in energy economics and energy policy.