事故的系统论

System theory of accident

吸引子是系统维护动态稳定和安全状态,实现系统功能的根本内因.事故是系统运动发生的突变.分岔点是系统可能发生事故的关键.在参量空间,论文以分岔点(集)为参照导出对系统参量的度量,建立事故潜势的数学表达式.表达式描述了系统内在的发生事故的可能性.事故潜势反映了事故发生的本质特征和机理,为预防事故提供了理论依据.

Attractor is the essential cause to maintain the dynamic stability and safe state of a system and to implement the system's function. Accident is the catastrophe happening during system movement. Bifurcation is the crux of the accident happening in systems. This paper evolves the measure of the system parameter corresponding to the bifurcation point (set) in parameter space and sets up the mathematical expression formula of the potential of accident. The expression formula describes the internal possibility of accident happening of the system.The potential of accident reflects the essential character and mechanism of the accidenta and offers the theoretical foundation for preventing the accident.