应用GCMs和历史气候资料生成我国在CO_2倍增时的气候情景

TO GENERATE CLIMATE SCENARIOS IN CHINA WITH DOUBLED CO_2 BY USING GCMs OUTPUTS AND HISTORIC WEATHER DATA

采用3种大气环流模型(GCMs)的输出结果,并结合我国各地有代表性气象台站20-30年的逐日气象资料,在微机上生成了我国在CO_2倍增时的3种气候情景.进而分析了我国未来温度、降水和太阳辐射3要素可能的时空分布特征和季节变化趋势,并推测我国易受全球气候变化不利影响的脆弱地区.

In this paper, the outputs of 3 general circulation models (i. e., GISS, OFDL and UKMO) were employes as a basis on computer for constructing the regional climate scenarios with doubled CO_2 concentrations in China, combined with 20-30 years historic weather data, By which, the aurthors disccussed the distributional features and seasonal changes of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation under doubled CO_2 scenarios and also estimated the vulnerable regions of global climate change in China. The results could provide necessary information for assessing the implication of climate change in China.