广州至珠海城际快速轨道交通客流预测

Passenger Volume Forecasting of Guangzhou-Zhuhai Intercity Rapid Mass Transit

基于对广州至珠海城际快速轨道交通功能定位与客流特征的分析,提出了将城际快速轨道交通作为区域客流通道进行研究的基本思想以及基于四阶段的客流预测技术路线.用客流分配组合模型,对广州至珠海城际快速轨道交通进行了客流预测,获得了线路全日客运量、客运工作量、平均运距和高峰小时最大断面流量等客流预测指标.

Based on the analyses of the role, functions and passenger flow characteristics of Guangzhou-Zhuhai intercity rapid mass transit, the basic idea that intercity mass transit should be taken as a regional passenger corridor was proposed, and the technical route of passenger volume forecasting based on the four-step forecasting method was put forward. By applying the combined model for passenger flow assignment, the passenger volume of Guangzhou-Zhuhai rapid mass transit was forecasted, and its daily passenger volume, passenger turnover, average transport distance, and maximum transect volume during rush hours were gained.