基于分期投入的风险投资多态期望值定价方法

An approach to multi-state expected value pricing for subsection venture capital

为了克服传统风险投资定价方法存在的计算困难、视风险投资为一次性投资,以及对风险企业的发展前景假设单一等不足,本文提出了基于分期投入的风险投资多态期望值定价方法。该方法通过时间因素的引入,来反映风险投资家分期投入的特征;通过风险企业发展结局的可能状态集的引入以及相应的概率赋值,来反映风险企业发展的多态特征;通过期望值计算方法的引入,来反映风险企业发展多态下的集中趋势。案例分析表明,该方法能够更为科学、合理地对风险投资进行定价。

This study is intended to put forward a better approach to venture capital pricing than traditional ones. Considering some drawbacks exist in traditional approaches, such as difficult calculations, seeing venture capital as only one-time investment, and too single assumption for venture enterprises'development, a new approach, named 'approach to multi-state expected value pricing for subsection venture capital', is proposed in which time is introduced to reflect characteristics of capitalists'subsection investment and multi-states of venture enterprises'development and their respective probabilities are considered to show characteristics of high uncertainty of venture enterprises, and the expected value calculation approach is applied to show the central tendency of multi-states of venture enterprises'development. An analysis of a case shows that the approach can be more scientific and reasonable to price venture capital.