农业气象服务潜在经济效益的理论评估方法初探

Pilot Study of Evaluation Method in Theories about the Potential Economic Benefit from Agrometeorological Service

气象科技服务的效益问题,一直是气象学界关心的问题之一。然而,天气预报与生俱来的一个特点就是其产品具有它固有的不确定性,探讨农业气象科技服务经济效益的理论方法,无论是对于提高气象科技服务的社会经济效益,还是对于提高气象部门的自身经济效益都显得十分重要。本文采用离散模式和概率统计等方法对农业气象决策服务潜在经济效益的理论评估方法进行了初步探讨,并以一些个例进行说明。

It is one of the questions meteorologists are concerned about that the benefit of meteorological service. The productions of weather forecast have inherent indetermination, so it is highly important that research the evaluation method in theories of economic benefit from agrometeorological service not only for improving the social benefit of meteorological service but also for increasing the economical benefit of meteorological department. This paper preliminarily research the evaluation method in theories about the potential economic benefit from agrometeorological service by dissociation method and probability statistic, and give some cases analysis.