基于极大熵原理的黄河流域水资源承载力研究——以山西段为例

Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Yellow River Watershed Based on the Theory of Maximum Entropy: A Case of Shanxi Part

水资源承载力是度量水资源安全的一个重要手段,是探讨用水对策的重要依据,也是近年来水科学领域研究的热点问题。该文在灰色系统理论理论基础上,根据信息论中Jaynes最大信息熵原理,提出了一种水资源承载力评价模型;将其应用到山西省黄河流域水资源承载力评价中,并将评价结果与模糊综合评判结果进行对比分析,说明了该模型结果的分辨率、灵敏度以及评价的可靠性都有一定程度提高,从而为水资源承载力研究提供了新的思路与方法。

Water resources carrying capacity is an important indicator of water resources security,it is also an important base for discussing water resources utilization countermeasures. Therefore, it has became an centre issue in water resources research. This paper put forward a new model according to the Jaynes maximum entropy in information theory on the base of grey system theory, and applied this model in assessing the water resources carrying capacity in yellow river watershed (Shan'xi province), and compared the results of this model with those of normal fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. The result showed that the model presented in this paper is not only derived strictly and scientifically, but also has high resolution, sensitivity and reliability. Water resources carrying capacity assessment result also showed that the carrying capacity was equal in 2000 and 2010 in most of the study area except in lvliang region. In 2000, the carrying capacity level in such cities as Taiyuan, Linfen, Yuncheng, Jincheng, Jinzhong was 3, and that of other cities was 2; in 2010, the carrying capacity level in lvliang is 3 which was 2 in 2000. There is an phenomenon that the carrying capacity is higher in 2010 than that of in 2000 in Taiyuan, the main reason were the construction of Wanjiazhai city water conservancy project which provides much more water resources for Taiyuan city and the intensive and extensive water saving campaign. This also verified the rule that exploiting new water resources and water saving are the two most important countermeasures for water resources sustainable development and utilization.