海洋结构建造工期估算的模糊型计划评审技术

Fussy Type Plan Review Technology of Construction Period Estimation for Offshore Structures

根据模糊型计划评审技术(F-PERT)的理论和方法,研究了海洋工程结构施工工期的估算方法:应用模糊数学中的隶属度概念,将施工过程中的各种影响因素(气候影响、人员心理、机械疲劳、经济制约等因素)用定量的形式表现出来。利用本方法可以求得最佳开工日期,以及每个工序按期完工的概率。在QHD32-6油田的WHPB组块的建造工程中应用表明,该方法对于海洋工程结构物的建造具有一定的指导意义。

According to the theory and method of fussy type plan review technology (F-PERT), the estimation method of construction period of offshore structure has been studied. The various influential factors in construction course, such as construction environment, personnel psychology, mechanical fatigue, economic restriction, etc, are described in quantitative form by applying the concept of subordinate degree from fussy mathematics. The optimum construction start date and the work finished probability on schedule for each work procedure can be got by this method. The construction of WHP B blockage in QHD 32-6 oilfield is taken as an example to demonstrate the engineering application of this method. It shows the method offers certain guidance to construction of offshore structures.