应用枚举法估计乐山市暗娼基数的研究

The estimation of baseline number of commercial sex workers(CSWs) in Leshan city by an enumeration method

目的 探索枚举法在暗娼基数估计中的应用 ,并对四川省乐山市中心城区暗娼基数进行估计。方法 采用枚举法 ,根据不同街道暗娼的密集程度分层抽样调查 ,计算各层调查样本的均数、标准差、95 %可信区间 ;推算、汇总 ,获得目标人群的估计数。结果 以不同街道暗娼密集程度分层计算 ,估计乐山市中心城区暗娼总数 175 6人 ;以高危场所规模分层计算 ,估计乐山市中心城区暗娼总数 14 0 5人。结论 街道暗娼密集程度和高危场所规模都可作为枚举法抽样调查的依据 ,但在大型城市宜按街道暗娼密集度分层抽样调查。在中、小型城市宜按高危场所规模分层抽样调查 ,使结果更稳定、可信。

Objective To explore the application of an enumeration method in estimating the baseline number of female commercial sex workers(CSWs) in Leshan downotown Methods An enumeration method was applied in the survey Stratified samples were collected according to the concentration of CSWs in different streets;the means,standard deviation and 95% CI of each stratum were calculated. The estimated number of CSWs was obtained by calculating and aggregating the collected data Results The total numbner of CSWs was 1,756 by calculating them according to the concentration in different dowentown streets and was 1,405 according to the size of of high-risk sites Conculusion Both level of concentration of CSWs in different streets and size of high-risk sites could be used as the bases of the enumeration method by stratified sampling Stratified sampling according to the level of concentration of CSWs in streets was suitable in lager cities;at the same time stratified sampling according to the size of high risk sites was suitable in medium and small-sized cities,which gave much more credible and stable results