拉西瓦水电站前期隧洞施工进度风险分析

Risk analysis on pre-stage construction schedule of tunnels for Laxiwa hydropower project

在传统的理论中,对影响水利水电工程施工进度风险因素,只提出防范措施,没有进行对比分析。提出了新方法运用综合风险分析结果,通过对拉西瓦水电站工程实例建立决策树分析模型,对可能导致施工进度变化的结果进行对比分析,为选择施工进度风险的最佳防范措施提供科学分析手段和依据。

In conventional practice, only preventive measures are presented but no comparative analysis is conducted for the risk factors influencing construction schedule of hydro projects. A method put forward in this paper, by establishing the decision tree analysis model for the Laxiwa project and utilizing the synthetic risk analysis results, conducts comparative analysis on the factors potentially influencing construction schedule and provides means and basis for adopting optimal measures against construction schedule risk.