十字路口的中国经济——通货紧缩向通货膨胀反转时期的形势与选择

Chinese Economy at the Crossroads: From Deflation to Inflation

本文对于从通货紧缩向通货膨胀反转时期的中国经济的争论、走向及选择进行了分析。根据有关过热的标准判断,中国经济目前尚未“过热”,只是“预热”,2004年也不太可能过热,但通货紧缩向通货膨胀的反转已不可逆转。与此同时,治理通货膨胀将面临失业、利益分化等许多成本,因此,需要谨慎观察并考虑宏观调控的成本。

Chinese economic development is at thecrossroad and we need relections, assessments andperspective visions. It is important to have control inthe shifting moment from deflation to inflation in themacroeconomic situation by implementing propermacroeconomic policies.