关于地下水位动态预测模型的进一步研究

Further Studies on Groundwater Dynamic Prediction Model

针对目前建立地下水动态预测模型所存在的问题 ,通过引入综合因子时间作为预测模型的主因子 ,用河道补给和降水因素作为修正因子 ,并利用指数值的大小间接反映其权重 ,使所建模型物理含义清晰 ,计算方法简捷 ,有效提高了模型的拟合及预测精度 ,并通过实例进行了残差平方和、标准剩余差及相关指数计算比较。

Aimed at the problems existing in groundwater dynamic prediction model, further studies on groundwater dynamic prediction model are carried through in this paper. Through introducing comprehensive time factor as main factor of prediction model, using river recharge and rainfall factors as modification factors, and reflecting the weighting by index value, the models established are becoming clear in physical concept, quick in calculation method. Thus, the precisions of model simulation and prediction are increased. The residual square sum of, standard surplus difference and other related indices are compared through case study.