无资料地区水文预报研究的方法与出路

Hydrological Prediction in Ungauged Basins

无资料地区的水文研究是最近国际上水资源水环境研究的热点.总结了中国过去在流域洪水预报和设计洪水计算中针对无资料地区研究所取得的相关成果,指出现代水文学应该充分运用新的系统理论和方法,依靠计算机技术和遥感手段,在水文数值模拟方向上寻找无资料地区水文预报的新出路.对无资料地区的水文研究要从有充分实测资料的流域开始,人为隐去部分站点的实测数据以检验依靠剩余少量数据而建成的水文模型的适用性和精度.最后分析了流域分布式水文模型、空间插值、四维同化技术等方法在无资料地区水文预报中的意义和作用.

PUB (Prediction in Ungaged Basins) is one of recent focus of water resources management research. In the biggest developing country of the world, Chinese hydrologists have to face this difficult condition: Many basins in China are ungauged, at least are imperfect gauged. In this paper major achievements of Chinese researches on PUB are summarized, and some unit hydrograph and inferential formulae in different areas are given first. It is pointed out that modern hydrology should fully use new systematic theory and method, rely on computer technology and remote sensing means, and look for a new outlet in the direction of numerical simulation for PUB. The article proposes that the research should base on data-abundant basin to build mathematic model and then explore the model to ungauged basins. To identify the suitability and precision of a hydrology model, some measured data should be concealed randomly or intentionally to check the precision of the model. At last, some new theories and techniques used for simulating the ungauged basins are appraised, such as distribution hydrological model, remote sense, and four-dimensional data assimilation system. And some thoughts on hydrological study in the ungauged basins are put forward.