基于多层递阶法的伤亡事故预测

Accident prediction based on multi-layer increase by degrees

运用现代控制理论中的系统辨识方法而给出了多层递阶法的伤亡事故预测系统的动态模型、基本原理,提出运用多层递阶方法对伤亡事故进行预测,通过对某飞机制造公司伤亡事故的实例分析表明,与固定参数预测模型相比较,基于多层递阶的预测过程可以充分利用长时间统计数据,并能减小预测误差,提高预测精度。

Based on the method of system discrimination from the theory of modern control, the Multi-layer Increase by Degrees(MID)is put forward. And it has important merit different from other predicting methods. And the basic principle of MID is given.It is used in the prediction of accidents based on statistics of some plane companies. The example indicates that process of prediction based on MID can make full use of long-time data and reduce the errors, also it can improve the predictive precision.