北京市经济持续增长下的城-近郊人口分布合理性研究

Study on the Rationality of Population Distribution in Beijing's Urban & Suburban Area under Sustainable Economic Development

本文利用北京市城区人口密度与近郊区人口密度的比作为反映人口分布的指标,通过对城近郊区人口密度及其变动与经济发展、城市交通、人均居住面积、绿地面积等因素的相关分析,阐明了人口分布变动主要取决于经济发展水平,城市交通、人均居住面积、绿地面积等因素是通过经济变量作用于人口因素,或人口因素通过经济变量作用于其他。最后,本文利用城近郊人口密度梯度与GDP的logistic曲线估计,对人口分布的合理性做进一步的分析。

Using the ratio of population density in Beijing urban area to that in the suburbs as an index that reflects population distribution of Beijing City, this paper makes a correlation analysis of the relation between population density and its variation and such factors as economic development, city transportation, living space per capita, and green patch area, etc., illustrating that the change of population distribution is largely dependent on economic development level while the factors of city transportation, living space per capita, and green patch area act on the population factor and vice versa via economic variables. The paper also makes a further analysis of the rationality of population distribution by referring to the gradient of population density in the city suburbs and GDP logistic curve evaluation.