摘要
This paper studies that the bullwhip effect of order releases and the amplifications of safety stock arise within the supply chain even when the demand model is ARIMA(0, 1, 1) and the forecast method used is a simple exponentially weighted moving average. It also examines a vendor managed inventory (VMI) program to determine how it can help alleviate such negative effects, and gives the theoretical proofs and numerical illustrations. The results show that the effects with VMI are better than the effect without VMI in demand forecasting and safety stock levels, etc.
研究了发生在供应链中订货的牛鞭效应和安全库存放大问题 ,其需求模型是ARIMA(0 ,1,1) ,而所用的预测方法是简单的指数平滑 .在此基础上 ,还研究了供应商管理库存计划如何确定减轻这样的负面效应 ,并且给出了理论证明和数值解释 ,结果表明在需求预测、安全库存水平等方面使用供应商管理库存的效果比没用供应商管理库存的要好 .
基金
TheNaturalScienceFoundationofEducationDepartmentofJiangsuProvince (No.0 2KJD63 0 0 0 2 )
