美国迫人民币升值采取的手段和我们的对策

On the USA Policy and China' s Countermeasure to the Appreciation of RMB

本文从美国社会的视角,对美国政府和国会的政治家们为迫使人民币升值所采取的手段进行了分析,并提出了应对措施。美国社会占主导地位的大国历史观和大国国际关系观认为,中国必然走向超级大国,美国必须遏制中国的经济发展。在此背景下,为减少美中贸易逆差,降低高失业率,美国通过将人民币汇率问题政治化、国际化,并通过外交和国际多边会议场合对我施压等政治手段,迫人民币升值;在政治手段不奏效的情况下,又采取了反倾销、对我加入WTO的履约状况进行评估、动用"301条款"等经济手段,迫我就范。作者认为,2004年人民币汇率问题仍将会是中美经贸关系的热点,且近年内人民币汇率的浮动不会消除美中贸易逆差。但只要美中贸易逆差存在,美国就会不断使用政治、经济手段对我施压,直至人民币实现完全自由浮动。我国应从政治、经济两方面有针对性地积极应对,并做好长期应对的准备。在此基础上,逐步完善人民币汇率形成机制。

The paper analyzes the political and economic methods set forwarded by politicians of the US government and congress in order to pressure RMB to appreciate. And then outlines current policies and actions to ease such pressure . The US government started to adopt other methods such as antidumping, evaluating China's fulfillment of WTO promises and Article 301 to further pressure China into agreement after political and diplomatic efforts had failed to reach their goals. The author anticipates that the RMB exchange rate will remain the hot topic between US and China trade in 2004 and the rate adjustments in recent years will not eliminate the trade deficit between the two countries. As long as the trade deficit exists, the United States will continue to pressure China using political and economic methods until RMB can reach total free adjustment. Therefore, China should prepare to address this issue for a long period.