人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长

Demographic Transition,Population Dividend,and Sustainability of Economic Growth:Minimum Employment As A Source of Economic Growth

本文援引国际经验 ,把人口转变引致的不同人口年龄特征阶段看作是经济增长的一个额外源泉 ,或人口红利 ;论证了通过高储蓄率、充足的劳动力供给和低抚养比 ,中国人口转变对改革以来高速经济增长的贡献 ;揭示了人口红利即将消失的趋势 ,由此提出最大化促进就业是维持人口对经济增长正面效应的关键。

By reviewing international experiences, this paper explains how age structure characteristics induced by demographic transition serves as a source of economic growth; reveals how the favored population structure characterized by high saving rate, sufficient labor supply, and low dependence ratio contributes to the rapid growth during the reform period; predicts a diminishing population dividend in the years to come; then discusses policy implications, suggesting a minimum employment strategy to take advantage of potential population dividend.