摘要
本文用一个带生命周期假说的经济动态模型全面考察了人口变动对经济的影响。该模型是消费的生命周期模型与人口模型、索洛增长模型的有机结合 ,并且纳入了寿命预期、收入预期、非预料死亡、遗产继承、社会养老保险等内容。模型的基本思想来源于戴蒙德的世代交叠模型。我们由模型研究发现 :死亡率表 (年龄别人口死亡率 )下降导致储蓄率上升。这是对“人口老龄化导致储蓄率下降”
Using a dynamic economic model with a life_cycle hypothesis, this paper examines the effect of population change on economy. Considering life expectancy, expect ed income, unexpected death, heritage and social endowment insurance, this model combines consumption life_cycle pattern with population model and Solow growth model. The main idea of this model comes from Diamonds overlapping generation s model. From the model study we found that with the decline of population morta li ty rate by age, saving rate increases. This finding modifies the main stream poi nt that is saving rate declines due to population aging.
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第2期1-6,22,共7页
Population & Economics
关键词
世代交叠模型
寿命预期
收入预期
储蓄率
overlapping generations model
life expectancy
expected income
saving rate
