9—16岁儿童因果判断过程中经验信息与共变信息的作用

The Influence of Beliefs and Covariation in Causal Reasoning

本研究考察了小学、初中、高中三个年龄组的被试在使用经验信息和共变信息进行因果判断时所具有的不同特点。研究结果表明:(1)当经验信息无法证明待判断原因是否可信时,共变信息的作用要大一些;(2)随着被试年龄的增长,他们越来越多地采用共变信息进行判断;(3)ΔP值的作用并不是直线性的,只有当它增大到一定程度时,被试才会改变自己的判断。

The persent study investigated how subjects of three different ages use covariation information and pre-existing belifs in causal reasoning.The results were as follows:(1) The effect of covariation information is much bigger when subjects have no pre-existing beliefs about the problem.(2) Older subjects emhpasis covariation information more than younger subjects in their causal reasoning.(3)The effect of ΔP is not linear. Subjects change their judgements when it increases uo to some thresholds.